[Lucky]

Career Splits:
Home .371/.465/.676/1.141
Away .294/.393/.507/.900

2004-2006 Splits
Home .353/.469/.613/1.082
Away .293/.409/.473/.882

2005
Home .353/.471/.616/1.087
Away .287/.418/.453/.871

2006
Home .338/.445/.531/.976
Away .266/.360/.421/.781

	Helton Home HR	Coors Field HR Factor
2001:	27	1.457 - 2nd in MLB
2002:	18	1.600 - 1st in MLB
2003:	23	1.369 - 2nd in MLB
2004:	21	1.235 - 4th in MLB
2005:	13	1.119 - 8th in MLB
2006:	8	1.167 - 10th in MLB

Small flaw in that is that Helton hitting more HRs helps to up the HR factor. But deal with it.


2003 160 G .358/.458/.630/1.088
2004 154 G .347/.469/.620/1.088
2005 144 G .320/.445/.534/.979
2006 145 G .302/.404/.476/.880



Todd Helton isn't very good.

EDIT: He's not bad either. But horribly overpriced and seemingly in decline. A .900 OPS away is pretty good if it was likely to continue.

[The Jewish Cunthead]

But isn't he a HOFer according to someone on OO?

[Lucky]

The more I think about it the more I feel like my point is overstated. Helton hasn't played in the major leagues. I've always had that opinion towards him. Its why in fantasy baseball I'll start any loser hitting in Coors for years because he was likely to hit better than usual. But Helton's not a bad hitter by any standard. He would be a very good player by most standards. And I bet he bounces back a bit this year. Think about targeting him in drafts. I bet people will let him fall quite a bit but he still has a good upside. If he's there in the 6-8th round I'm interested.

But there's no doubt that Coors has always helped him incredibly. That as Coors has come down to earth thanks to the humidifiers he's come down to earth. And that his numbers have fallen off for a few years now. Todd Helton is overrated and absurdly overpriced.

This stems from the fact that he might end up traded soon. And its going to be a topic of debate then.

[The Jewish Cunthead]

No doubt, when I started playing fantasy baseball, guys like Bichette, Walker, Castilla and Andres all went in the top 10 or 15. What a joke.

Instead of trading Hansen for Helton, why not work on getting a closer? I think the Sox have enough offense, right? That being said, how does that lineup look now? I don't remember the last time the Sox were so lefty heavy.

Lugo
Helton
Ortiz
Manny
Drew
Youk
Tek
Crisp
Pedroia

[Lucky]

IF the Sox trade Hansen or Delcarmen for Helton I'll be very surprised. It would help the offense quite a bit but yeah, its not as big a need as the bullpen which you'd be taking from. Add in that its a 6 year committment at big dollars and its very un Epstein like. Matsuzaka and Drew are the first deals signed over 4 years. In fact, I think Lugo was the first over 3. Drew has an opt out for injury after 3 and Matsuzaka is techinically a rookie so they should have 6 years. But adding Helton at his age and seeming decline for that long would be a MAJOR change of pace. Not that Epstein and the Sox haven't taken a clearly new path this offseason but this strikes me as a bolder move. Drew and Matsuzaka strike me as somewhat calculated. Helton would just be Steinbrennar all the way.

I think Helton would probably fall back to the 5 spot and Drew goes to 6. The two could be switched if performances dictated it. At 1/2 I think you have Lugo/Youkilis. I'd bat Youk leadoff but I think you can do it either way. It seperates the lefties Ortiz and Helton with Manny too.

Youkilis
Lugo
Ortiz
Manny
Helton
Drew
Tek
Crisp
Pedroia

I've seen one rumor that says its Lowell/Tavarez for Helton. If that's the case, salary and overrated be damned its a steal. Hansen, Delcarmen, or other prospects seem like the wrong approach though.

[The Jewish Cunthead]

If the Rox are paying a good chunk of Helton's salary, the Sox would be on the hook for only $9/10M a season. Now THAT's one hell of a bargain, even with the risk of moving Hansen.

[Lucky]

Not at 6 years if he's declining, though. If you were getting Todd Helton at $10M it would be a good price. But declining, leaving Coors. Is a league average hitter worth $10M? At 1B where you have options? And he's locked in there until 2012.

[The Jewish Cunthead]

I dunno, maybe the prospect of an actual pennant race would energize him. Plus in that lineup, at that price, he doesn't have to be that .370 hitter with an OPS over 1.000, not to mention he'll still give you GG defense, something the Sox could use.

[Jack Quinn]

and really, at only 10 million a year, he isn't locked in anywhere. The Sox could probably eat half that salary and move him with ease if they wanted to. If I could get him without giving up Hansen or Delcarmen, I would do it in a second.

[Lucky]

The Sox infield was actually quite amazing last season. Lowell and Gonzalez made a great left side and Loretta and Youkilis are both pretty decent. Helton would improve the D at 1B but Youkilis would replace Lowell at 3B presumabely (and Youk is worse at 3B than at 1B) which would lower the quality there. I rather go with the great 3B/pretty good 1B than the ok 3B/great 1B. Offense aside, obviouslly.

I think we all know I don't like Todd Helton but I'm totally willing to believe he'll bounce back or could get reenergized in Boston. But if he doesn't do you want this guy playing 1B?

.266/.360/.421/.781

And I know we say that if Colorado takes money he becomes easier to deal off. But that's always seemed flawed to me. Rick tried to make that arguement with Utley. But if the Sox don't want Helton because he isn't producing enough he doesn't have trade value. And if that came to pass it would be a couple of years down the line and if he was playing badly it would be pretty clear that he was done so few people would be hopeful that he could bounce back. Unless the idea is that Colorado pays half the salary so he's down to $10M and then Boston eats half that so he becomes a $5M guy. Beyond that I just don't see trade value. 6/$60M may not be as bad as 6/$90M but its still a big, long contract.

[Outback Frito Pendejo]

I had posted about this on OO before solly steered me here. I'd have no problem shipping out Lowell and Tavarez, but not any major prospects. I had glanced at these stats on ESPN when I saw the rumor posted this morning. I don't mind if the Sox want to spend the money, and I know Hansen's stock is down a little, but they've given away enough prospects over the last couple of years, and a declining 1B aint worth it.

[DevSop]

Is DeClarmen really a good enough prospect to hold up the deal if the Rockies are willing to take DeClarmen, Lowell, Tavarez, and Clement?

[Lucky]

Delcarmen's a pretty good prospect. And with the Boston system a bit shallow right now (at least in the top half) after the trades of Hanley, Sanchez, Bard, and Meredith, the sickness of Lester, and the callup of Papelbon... Delcarmen's one of the few guys who will be in Boston in the next year or two. Strikes folks out without too many baserunners. He's either just below or equal with Hansen depending on how you judge Hansen's rookie season and what it does to his value. More importantly he's already had success as a ML reliever and that's Boston's biggest weakness. Hansen and Delcarmen are going to have to play parts in that pen this year. Losing them hurts the pen to boost the offense. And the offense is currently stronger than the pen.

In that trade scenario you're losing Tavarez too from the pen. And if they're taking on Lowell, Tavarez, and Clement I'm guessing Colorado isn't eating much of Helton's contract at all. So no, I don't like that deal if it were on the table. Depending on the money.

I saw some article today that said Colorado have them a list of prospects they'd want. Delcarmen, Hansen, Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, or Clay Bucholz. And they'd be willing to settle with Lester. That's so nice of Colorado. If that's the list of prospects Colorado wants I stay away big time. Most stuff I'm reading seem to say that Epstein is staying strong at going no further than Lowell/Tavarez/Clement.

www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/mlb/article/0,2777,DRMN_23924_5312977,00.html